Genius Level

The single most recent river_conditions row for this river. Fed every 15 min by the rivers:update command which combines USGS instantaneous values (flow, gauge height, water temp, parameter 00045 for rain bucket) with OpenWeather current conditions (air temp, weather, wind, humidity, barometric pressure).

The fishing rating shown on each river page comes from FishingRecommendationService::getRecommendation(). Four independently scored components plus a barometric-pressure modifier produce a 0–11 raw score, which is clamped and cut into Excellent / Good / Fair / Poor. Below is the live decomposition for this river.

Cached in river_flow_stats, regenerated nightly at 03:00 ET by flow:compute-stats. The pipeline pulls a 3-year window of hourly- downsampled USGS flow, removes Tukey outliers at 3× IQR on log-flow, then computes percentiles, a 20-bin log-space histogram, Q-Q quantiles vs. a fitted normal, and (if ≥ 20 historical "Good" reports exist) promotes the optimal zone from a heuristic p15–p30 to the empirical p10–p90 of those reports.

Three independent feeds power the per-river weather story. NWS gridpoint forecasts (refreshed every 3 hours) supply 7-day periods + 48 hours of hourly data. AHPS stage forecasts give 5-day predicted flow / gauge height. SPC convective outlooks tier the river's lat/lon by tornado / wind / hail risk for days 1–3. Active alerts are de-duplicated against expired headlines.

Latest 24h average lake-surface temp from NDBC buoys + C-MAN stations, compared against 7-day delta and 55°F threshold crossing detection. State changes drive copy on every river page.

ActiveStormDetector fires four parallel triggers against river_precip_observations, NWS active alerts, and 6-hour flow deltas. Any single trigger flips the storm card to active; severity is then classified by the most aggressive signal across all 31 rivers. Precip readings flow from a 4-source priority chain — fresher, more accurate sources override stale ones.

Percentile rank of today's underlying conditions composite (mean of per-river fishing scores 0–100) against the historical record on this calendar window (±15 days, all years). Below 10 comparable days in the window the Index falls back to the raw underlying score so the page always shows a meaningful number.

Most-recent NWS prediction for each (river, date) in the last 14 days, sorted past→future. The verifier joins each prediction to MAX/MIN(air_temp_f) + MAX(precipitation_1h) from river_conditions on that date. Δ column compares observed vs predicted. Known upstream gap: predicted precipitation inches are unreliable (NWS forecast text rarely includes a clean inches value, so the snapshotter falls back to 0). Use precip probability as the better forecast signal.

Tiered retention so the database doesn't grow unbounded but the long-history aggregates that power the Alley Index, forecast verifier, and storm-pulse detector remain intact. Raw river_conditions prune weekly via rivers:clean; hourly + daily rollups are forever.

Every external feed feeding SHA's intelligence stack, with the artisan command that drives it, last-fetch timestamp, and total row count. If a "last_at" is hours behind cadence, that source is stalled.

Every magic number that drives a SHA decision, with the file it lives in. Edit the source to change a threshold — this page reflects the live code path. Grouped by subsystem.