The Alley Index

7-Day Forecast

A rule-based forecast built from NWS weather, AHPS flow predictions where available, recent storm pulse behavior, and current river scoring.

Updated Jun 17, 5:04 AM EDT

Best Window

Sunday looks like the best window so far: 58 (Average).

Wed

7 Blown

53% confidence

incoming rain matched to recent pulse behavior

Thu

47 Average

54% confidence

incoming rain matched to recent pulse behavior

Fri

57 Average

51% confidence

recent flow trajectory dropping

Sat

54 Average

47% confidence - low

recent flow trajectory dropping

Sun

58 Average

44% confidence - low

recent flow trajectory dropping

Mon

55 Average

37% confidence - low

recent flow trajectory dropping

Tue

45 Average

33% confidence - low

recent flow trajectory dropping

Wednesday, Jun 17 river details 31 rivers

Cuyahoga River

excellent

552 CFS - 73.9 F - Stained

Confidence 69.8%

Cattaraugus Creek

good

350 CFS - 70.1 F - Clear

Confidence 69.8%

Irondequoit Creek

fair

357 CFS - 69.4 F - Muddy

Confidence 56%

Grand River

good

128 CFS - 79.9 F - Stained

Confidence 69.8%

Genesee River

fair

3000.2 CFS - 75.2 F - Muddy

Confidence 56%

Sandy Creek (Hamlin)

fair

237.6 CFS - 74.5 F - Muddy

Confidence 56%

Eighteenmile Creek (Niagara)

fair

197.2 CFS - 74.7 F - Muddy

Confidence 56%

Black River (Watertown)

good

2201.3 CFS - n/a F - Stained

Confidence 47%

Ashtabula River

fair

714.2 CFS - 60.2 F - Muddy

Confidence 56%

Conneaut Creek

fair

919.3 CFS - 69.2 F - Muddy

Confidence 56%

Oak Orchard Creek

fair

423.9 CFS - 79.1 F - Muddy

Confidence 56%

Rocky River

fair

342.6 CFS - 73.6 F - Muddy

Confidence 56%

Huron River

fair

414.1 CFS - 73.7 F - Muddy

Confidence 56%

Canadaway Creek

fair

77.3 CFS - n/a F - Muddy

Confidence 47%

Silver Creek

fair

37.4 CFS - n/a F - Muddy

Confidence 47%

Johnson Creek

fair

321.4 CFS - 74.5 F - Muddy

Confidence 56%

Chagrin River

fair

358.6 CFS - n/a F - Muddy

Confidence 47%

Brandy Run

fair

13.3 CFS - n/a F - Muddy

Confidence 47%

Elk Creek

poor

813.3 CFS - 61.8 F - Muddy

Confidence 56%

Walnut Creek

poor

911.9 CFS - 68.7 F - Muddy

Confidence 56%

Twenty Mile Creek

poor

1456.1 CFS - 60.4 F - Muddy

Confidence 56%

Crooked Creek

poor

357 CFS - 61.8 F - Muddy

Confidence 56%

Salmon River

fair

263.6 CFS - n/a F - Clear

Confidence 47%

Vermilion River

poor

384.7 CFS - n/a F - Muddy

Confidence 47%

Chautauqua Creek

poor

182.2 CFS - n/a F - Muddy

Confidence 47%

Eighteen Mile Creek

poor

529 CFS - n/a F - Muddy

Confidence 47%

Black River

poor

426.8 CFS - n/a F - Muddy

Confidence 47%

Buffalo Creek

poor

509.2 CFS - n/a F - Muddy

Confidence 47%

Cazenovia Creek

poor

553.2 CFS - n/a F - Muddy

Confidence 47%

Euclid Creek

poor

201.9 CFS - n/a F - Muddy

Confidence 47%

Sandy Creek (Adams)

poor

488.8 CFS - n/a F - Muddy

Confidence 47%

Thursday, Jun 18 river details 31 rivers

Conneaut Creek

good

41 CFS - 68.1 F - Clear

Confidence 57.9%

Cuyahoga River

fair

1360 CFS - 72.8 F - Stained

Confidence 68.8%

Elk Creek

good

10.2 CFS - 61 F - Clear

Confidence 57.9%

Walnut Creek

good

11.6 CFS - 67.7 F - Clear

Confidence 57.9%

Crooked Creek

good

4.3 CFS - 61 F - Clear

Confidence 57.9%

Ashtabula River

good

30.3 CFS - 59.1 F - Clear

Confidence 57.9%

Rocky River

good

73.1 CFS - 72.5 F - Clear

Confidence 57.9%

Grand River

good

128 CFS - 78.5 F - Stained

Confidence 68.8%

Cattaraugus Creek

good

305 CFS - 69 F - Clear

Confidence 70%

Huron River

good

63.8 CFS - 72.6 F - Clear

Confidence 57.9%

Irondequoit Creek

fair

267.6 CFS - 69.2 F - Muddy

Confidence 55%

Black River (Watertown)

good

2377.1 CFS - n/a F - Stained

Confidence 47%

Genesee River

fair

3749.6 CFS - 75.2 F - Muddy

Confidence 55%

Sandy Creek (Hamlin)

fair

186 CFS - 74.5 F - Muddy

Confidence 55%

Eighteenmile Creek (Niagara)

fair

155 CFS - 74.1 F - Muddy

Confidence 55%

Vermilion River

fair

61.5 CFS - n/a F - Clear

Confidence 49.9%

Black River

fair

79 CFS - n/a F - Clear

Confidence 49.9%

Oak Orchard Creek

fair

354.5 CFS - 78.9 F - Muddy

Confidence 55%

Chagrin River

fair

34.5 CFS - n/a F - Clear

Confidence 49.9%

Brandy Run

fair

1.4 CFS - n/a F - Clear

Confidence 49.9%

Chautauqua Creek

fair

123.5 CFS - n/a F - Muddy

Confidence 47%

Euclid Creek

fair

6.9 CFS - n/a F - Clear

Confidence 49.9%

Canadaway Creek

fair

55.9 CFS - n/a F - Muddy

Confidence 47%

Buffalo Creek

fair

350.4 CFS - n/a F - Muddy

Confidence 47%

Johnson Creek

fair

246.8 CFS - 74.3 F - Muddy

Confidence 55%

Sandy Creek (Adams)

fair

356.8 CFS - n/a F - Muddy

Confidence 47%

Silver Creek

fair

28.2 CFS - n/a F - Muddy

Confidence 47%

Salmon River

fair

259.4 CFS - n/a F - Clear

Confidence 47%

Twenty Mile Creek

poor

957.2 CFS - 59.7 F - Muddy

Confidence 55%

Eighteen Mile Creek

poor

346.2 CFS - n/a F - Muddy

Confidence 47%

Cazenovia Creek

poor

391.7 CFS - n/a F - Muddy

Confidence 47%

Friday, Jun 19 river details 31 rivers

Cattaraugus Creek

excellent

770 CFS - 68 F - Stained

Confidence 67.8%

Grand River

excellent

610 CFS - 78 F - Stained

Confidence 67.8%

Cuyahoga River

fair

1750 CFS - 72 F - Stained

Confidence 67.8%

Elk Creek

good

4.9 CFS - 60 F - Clear

Confidence 53.1%

Walnut Creek

good

5.9 CFS - 66.9 F - Clear

Confidence 53.1%

Oak Orchard Creek

good

242.5 CFS - 77.6 F - Clear

Confidence 51.8%

Rocky River

good

43.8 CFS - 71.7 F - Clear

Confidence 53.1%

Conneaut Creek

good

14.4 CFS - 67.2 F - Clear

Confidence 53.1%

Twenty Mile Creek

good

8.9 CFS - 58.6 F - Clear

Confidence 53.1%

Crooked Creek

good

1.9 CFS - 59.8 F - Clear

Confidence 53.1%

Irondequoit Creek

good

59.9 CFS - 67.9 F - Clear

Confidence 53.1%

Johnson Creek

good

19.2 CFS - 73 F - Stained

Confidence 53.1%

Eighteenmile Creek (Niagara)

good

13.2 CFS - 73.6 F - Clear

Confidence 53.1%

Ashtabula River

good

10 CFS - 58.2 F - Clear

Confidence 53.1%

Huron River

good

34.4 CFS - 72.2 F - Clear

Confidence 53.1%

Genesee River

poor

22026 CFS - 73.9 F - Stained

Confidence 51.8%

Sandy Creek (Hamlin)

good

32.7 CFS - 73 F - Clear

Confidence 53.1%

Black River (Watertown)

good

1927.8 CFS - n/a F - Clear

Confidence 46.1%

Chautauqua Creek

fair

5.1 CFS - n/a F - Clear

Confidence 46.1%

Eighteen Mile Creek

fair

5.9 CFS - n/a F - Clear

Confidence 46.1%

Buffalo Creek

fair

16.7 CFS - n/a F - Clear

Confidence 46.1%

Cazenovia Creek

fair

41.4 CFS - n/a F - Clear

Confidence 46.1%

Salmon River

fair

246.3 CFS - n/a F - Clear

Confidence 46.1%

Sandy Creek (Adams)

fair

35.8 CFS - n/a F - Clear

Confidence 46.1%

Vermilion River

fair

26.9 CFS - n/a F - Clear

Confidence 46.1%

Brandy Run

fair

0.8 CFS - n/a F - Clear

Confidence 46.1%

Black River

fair

32.9 CFS - n/a F - Clear

Confidence 46.1%

Canadaway Creek

fair

8.9 CFS - n/a F - Clear

Confidence 46.1%

Silver Creek

fair

3 CFS - n/a F - Clear

Confidence 46.1%

Chagrin River

fair

14 CFS - n/a F - Clear

Confidence 46.1%

Euclid Creek

fair

5.2 CFS - n/a F - Clear

Confidence 46.1%

Saturday, Jun 20 river details 31 rivers

Grand River

excellent

610 CFS - 77.5 F - Stained

Confidence 66.8%

Cuyahoga River

fair

1020 CFS - 71.7 F - Stained

Confidence 66.8%

Oak Orchard Creek

good

249.7 CFS - 76.9 F - Clear

Confidence 47%

Rocky River

good

26.1 CFS - 71.4 F - Clear

Confidence 48.2%

Conneaut Creek

good

4.7 CFS - 66.8 F - Clear

Confidence 48.2%

Walnut Creek

good

2.7 CFS - 66.5 F - Clear

Confidence 48.2%

Cattaraugus Creek

good

125.6 CFS - 67.4 F - Clear

Confidence 48.2%

Johnson Creek

good

8.2 CFS - 72.3 F - Stained

Confidence 48.2%

Ashtabula River

good

2.9 CFS - 58 F - Clear

Confidence 48.2%

Elk Creek

good

2.1 CFS - 59.6 F - Clear

Confidence 48.2%

Twenty Mile Creek

good

4.2 CFS - 58.3 F - Clear

Confidence 48.2%

Crooked Creek

good

0.6 CFS - 59.6 F - Clear

Confidence 48.2%

Huron River

good

18.3 CFS - 72.2 F - Clear

Confidence 48.2%

Sandy Creek (Hamlin)

good

20.1 CFS - 72.3 F - Clear

Confidence 48.2%

Irondequoit Creek

good

45.4 CFS - 67 F - Clear

Confidence 48.2%

Eighteenmile Creek (Niagara)

good

5.8 CFS - 72.9 F - Clear

Confidence 48.2%

Black River (Watertown)

good

2160.9 CFS - n/a F - Clear

Confidence 47%

Eighteen Mile Creek

fair

2.8 CFS - n/a F - Clear

Confidence 42.2%

Buffalo Creek

fair

8.5 CFS - n/a F - Clear

Confidence 42.2%

Cazenovia Creek

fair

27.6 CFS - n/a F - Clear

Confidence 42.2%

Salmon River

fair

243.7 CFS - n/a F - Clear

Confidence 42.2%

Genesee River

poor

65285 CFS - 73 F - Stained

Confidence 47%

Sandy Creek (Adams)

fair

21.7 CFS - n/a F - Clear

Confidence 42.2%

Vermilion River

fair

11.5 CFS - n/a F - Clear

Confidence 42.2%

Chautauqua Creek

fair

2.5 CFS - n/a F - Clear

Confidence 42.2%

Black River

fair

13.4 CFS - n/a F - Clear

Confidence 42.2%

Silver Creek

fair

1.5 CFS - n/a F - Clear

Confidence 42.2%

Chagrin River

fair

5.4 CFS - n/a F - Clear

Confidence 42.2%

Brandy Run

fair

0.4 CFS - n/a F - Clear

Confidence 42.2%

Euclid Creek

fair

3.9 CFS - n/a F - Clear

Confidence 42.2%

Canadaway Creek

fair

7 CFS - n/a F - Clear

Confidence 42.2%

Sunday, Jun 21 river details 31 rivers

Oak Orchard Creek

excellent

257.1 CFS - 76.9 F - Stained

Confidence 42.1%

Johnson Creek

excellent

3.2 CFS - 72 F - Stained

Confidence 43.4%

Conneaut Creek

good

1.1 CFS - 66.7 F - Clear

Confidence 43.4%

Grand River

good

488 CFS - 77.2 F - Stained

Confidence 65.8%

Walnut Creek

good

1 CFS - 66.4 F - Clear

Confidence 43.4%

Sandy Creek (Hamlin)

good

12.2 CFS - 72 F - Clear

Confidence 43.4%

Ashtabula River

good

0.4 CFS - 58 F - Clear

Confidence 43.4%

Rocky River

fair

293.2 CFS - 71.3 F - Muddy

Confidence 52%

Cuyahoga River

fair

784 CFS - 71.4 F - Muddy

Confidence 65.8%

Elk Creek

good

0.6 CFS - 59.3 F - Clear

Confidence 43.4%

Twenty Mile Creek

good

1.8 CFS - 58.4 F - Clear

Confidence 43.4%

Cattaraugus Creek

good

91.9 CFS - 67.6 F - Clear

Confidence 43.4%

Huron River

fair

235.1 CFS - 71.7 F - Muddy

Confidence 52%

Irondequoit Creek

good

34.4 CFS - 67.2 F - Clear

Confidence 43.4%

Eighteenmile Creek (Niagara)

good

2.3 CFS - 72.6 F - Clear

Confidence 43.4%

Genesee River

poor

193500.5 CFS - 73 F - Stained

Confidence 42.1%

Black River (Watertown)

good

1874.1 CFS - n/a F - Clear

Confidence 38.4%

Crooked Creek

fair

0 CFS - 59.3 F - Clear

Confidence 43.4%

Chautauqua Creek

fair

1 CFS - n/a F - Clear

Confidence 38.4%

Eighteen Mile Creek

fair

1.1 CFS - n/a F - Clear

Confidence 38.4%

Buffalo Creek

fair

4 CFS - n/a F - Clear

Confidence 38.4%

Cazenovia Creek

fair

18.3 CFS - n/a F - Clear

Confidence 38.4%

Salmon River

fair

241.3 CFS - n/a F - Clear

Confidence 38.4%

Sandy Creek (Adams)

fair

12.9 CFS - n/a F - Clear

Confidence 38.4%

Chagrin River

fair

206.4 CFS - n/a F - Muddy

Confidence 47%

Brandy Run

fair

0.1 CFS - n/a F - Clear

Confidence 38.4%

Canadaway Creek

fair

5.5 CFS - n/a F - Clear

Confidence 38.4%

Silver Creek

fair

0.5 CFS - n/a F - Clear

Confidence 38.4%

Euclid Creek

fair

82.9 CFS - n/a F - Muddy

Confidence 47%

Vermilion River

poor

430.5 CFS - n/a F - Muddy

Confidence 47%

Black River

poor

536.7 CFS - n/a F - Muddy

Confidence 47%

Monday, Jun 22 river details 31 rivers

Oak Orchard Creek

excellent

264.8 CFS - 76 F - Stained

Confidence 37.3%

Johnson Creek

excellent

0.9 CFS - 71.4 F - Stained

Confidence 38.5%

Rocky River

good

8.9 CFS - 70.4 F - Clear

Confidence 38.5%

Walnut Creek

good

0.1 CFS - 66.3 F - Clear

Confidence 38.5%

Huron River

good

4.8 CFS - 71 F - Clear

Confidence 38.5%

Sandy Creek (Hamlin)

good

7.3 CFS - 71.4 F - Clear

Confidence 38.5%

Eighteenmile Creek (Niagara)

good

0.6 CFS - 71.7 F - Clear

Confidence 38.5%

Grand River

good

50.8 CFS - 76.5 F - Clear

Confidence 38.5%

Cuyahoga River

good

134.8 CFS - 70.8 F - Clear

Confidence 38.5%

Twenty Mile Creek

good

0.5 CFS - 58.2 F - Clear

Confidence 38.5%

Cattaraugus Creek

good

67.2 CFS - 67.3 F - Clear

Confidence 38.5%

Irondequoit Creek

good

26 CFS - 66.3 F - Clear

Confidence 38.5%

Conneaut Creek

good

0 CFS - 66.3 F - Clear

Confidence 38.5%

Genesee River

poor

573519.2 CFS - 72.1 F - Stained

Confidence 37.3%

Black River (Watertown)

good

1847.9 CFS - n/a F - Clear

Confidence 34.5%

Ashtabula River

fair

0 CFS - 57.4 F - Clear

Confidence 38.5%

Vermilion River

fair

1.5 CFS - n/a F - Clear

Confidence 34.5%

Elk Creek

fair

0 CFS - 59 F - Clear

Confidence 38.5%

Crooked Creek

fair

0 CFS - 58.9 F - Clear

Confidence 38.5%

Chautauqua Creek

fair

0.1 CFS - n/a F - Clear

Confidence 34.5%

Eighteen Mile Creek

fair

0.2 CFS - n/a F - Clear

Confidence 34.5%

Black River

fair

1.6 CFS - n/a F - Clear

Confidence 34.5%

Buffalo Creek

fair

1.7 CFS - n/a F - Clear

Confidence 34.5%

Cazenovia Creek

fair

12 CFS - n/a F - Clear

Confidence 34.5%

Salmon River

fair

238.8 CFS - n/a F - Clear

Confidence 34.5%

Sandy Creek (Adams)

fair

7.6 CFS - n/a F - Clear

Confidence 34.5%

Chagrin River

fair

0.1 CFS - n/a F - Clear

Confidence 34.5%

Euclid Creek

fair

2.1 CFS - n/a F - Clear

Confidence 34.5%

Canadaway Creek

fair

4.3 CFS - n/a F - Clear

Confidence 34.5%

Brandy Run

fair

0 CFS - n/a F - Clear

Confidence 34.5%

Silver Creek

fair

0 CFS - n/a F - Clear

Confidence 34.5%

Tuesday, Jun 23 river details 31 rivers

Oak Orchard Creek

excellent

272.7 CFS - 76 F - Stained

Confidence 33.5%

Rocky River

good

5 CFS - 69.9 F - Clear

Confidence 34.8%

Grand River

good

43.9 CFS - 76 F - Clear

Confidence 34.8%

Cuyahoga River

good

105.6 CFS - 70.1 F - Clear

Confidence 34.8%

Cattaraugus Creek

good

49 CFS - 67 F - Clear

Confidence 34.8%

Huron River

good

2.1 CFS - 70.6 F - Clear

Confidence 34.8%

Sandy Creek (Hamlin)

good

4.2 CFS - 71.2 F - Clear

Confidence 34.8%

Conneaut Creek

good

0 CFS - 65.8 F - Clear

Confidence 34.8%

Walnut Creek

good

0 CFS - 65.9 F - Clear

Confidence 34.8%

Irondequoit Creek

good

19.6 CFS - 66.2 F - Clear

Confidence 34.8%

Johnson Creek

good

0 CFS - 71.2 F - Stained

Confidence 34.8%

Black River (Watertown)

good

1822 CFS - n/a F - Clear

Confidence 31.8%

Ashtabula River

fair

0 CFS - 56.9 F - Clear

Confidence 34.8%

Elk Creek

fair

0 CFS - 58.4 F - Clear

Confidence 34.8%

Twenty Mile Creek

fair

0 CFS - 57.8 F - Clear

Confidence 34.8%

Crooked Creek

fair

0 CFS - 58.4 F - Clear

Confidence 34.8%

Buffalo Creek

fair

0.4 CFS - n/a F - Clear

Confidence 31.8%

Cazenovia Creek

fair

7.8 CFS - n/a F - Clear

Confidence 31.8%

Salmon River

fair

236.4 CFS - n/a F - Clear

Confidence 31.8%

Genesee River

poor

1699858.8 CFS - 72.1 F - Stained

Confidence 33.5%

Eighteenmile Creek (Niagara)

fair

0 CFS - 71.7 F - Clear

Confidence 34.8%

Sandy Creek (Adams)

fair

4.3 CFS - n/a F - Clear

Confidence 31.8%

Vermilion River

fair

0.1 CFS - n/a F - Clear

Confidence 31.8%

Black River

fair

0.1 CFS - n/a F - Clear

Confidence 31.8%

Euclid Creek

fair

1.4 CFS - n/a F - Clear

Confidence 31.8%

Canadaway Creek

fair

3.3 CFS - n/a F - Clear

Confidence 31.8%

Chagrin River

fair

0 CFS - n/a F - Clear

Confidence 31.8%

Brandy Run

fair

0 CFS - n/a F - Clear

Confidence 31.8%

Chautauqua Creek

fair

0 CFS - n/a F - Clear

Confidence 31.8%

Eighteen Mile Creek

fair

0 CFS - n/a F - Clear

Confidence 31.8%

Silver Creek

fair

0 CFS - n/a F - Clear

Confidence 31.8%

Methodology

This is a deterministic forecast, not an AI prediction. Flow uses AHPS when available, then storm pulse signatures, then recent log-linear flow trajectory, then a flat baseline fallback. Temperature and clarity are conservative heuristics. Confidence drops as the horizon gets farther out, especially on days 5-7.

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