Twenty Mile Creek

Fair
Confidence: 60%
Sources: recent regression

About Twenty Mile Creek

Twenty Mile Creek at North East drains 57 square miles of PA Erie County into Lake Erie, the easternmost PA tributary and a quieter alternative to the heavily-fished Elk and Walnut Creek systems. The creek runs through Borough-of-North-East public access and the wooded reaches above; the lower mile is the most-fished water. Smaller stocking numbers than Elk, but consistent.

October through April with fall and spring peaks. Quieter than Elk Creek. Wadeable at most flows; clears within 24-36 hours of a rise. The optimal fishing flow on Twenty Mile Creek is 110–350 CFS — flows above this range are typically too high and stained, flows below run low and clear. The river's long-term median flow is approximately 20 CFS, computed from the last several years of USGS gauge readings.

Current conditions (live, updated every 15 minutes): flow 30 CFS, water 55.6°F, clarity clear. Steelhead Addiction's Guide's Report rates the river FAIR as of this reading.

Twenty Mile Creek has no dedicated USGS flow gauge.

Flow data is estimated from Walnut Creek, scaled by watershed area ratio (57 sq mi / 36 sq mi = 1.58x). Use as a rough guide, not a precise measurement. Weather and angler reports are specific to Twenty Mile Creek.

Flow Rate (est.)
47
CFS ~
Gauge Height
-
ft
Water Temp
55.6
°F
Air Temp
70.1
°F
Clarity
Clear
Wind
🌬 Calm
≤5 mph

Last updated: 14 minutes ago (3:30 PM EDT)

Conditions today: Fair. Trending: improving.

Flow Pressure Air temp, scaled Rain per hour Storm pulse window Hourly flow pending Confidence: 0.6

Three days of nothing. 112 CFS held within 563%, water sat at 56°F, barometer barely moved. These are the days where the lake just shrugs at us. If the bite is on, no obvious reason. If it's off, also no obvious reason. Quiet sky on the way. Conditions should hold.

Lookback window Sep 8, 3 pm to Sep 11, 3 pm ET. Data refresh every 15 min. This is a pattern read, not proof of causation; fish reserve the right to embarrass the spreadsheet.
Flow Pressure Air temp, scaled Rain per hour Storm pulse window Hourly flow pending

Three days of nothing. 95 CFS held within 664%, water sat at 56°F, barometer barely moved. These are the days where the lake just shrugs at us. If the bite is on, no obvious reason. If it's off, also no obvious reason. Quiet sky on the way. Conditions should hold.

Lookback window Sep 4, 3 pm to Sep 11, 3 pm ET. Data refresh every 15 min. This is a pattern read, not proof of causation; fish reserve the right to embarrass the spreadsheet.

Guide's Report

fair steelhead fishing

Based on current conditions as of Fri, Sep 11 at 3:30 PM EDT (14 minutes ago)

Dropping nicely at 30 CFS, water is clear, 56°F — active feeding range. Manage expectations, but don't stay home. Water is pulling back. That first fishable window opens soon. I Fish Therefore I Cancel.

Steelhead green DAWN DUSK 65° 61° 62° 65° 76° 4% Sunset 7:36pm Solar Noon 1:15pm Dusk 8:04pm Sunrise 6:56am Solar Noon 1:15pm Dawn 6:28am 30 CFS Summer skinny but moving 🌑 0% New Moon N E S W 2 NNW mph 30.03" inHg stable 55.6°F Water Temp Now 3:45pm
Twenty Mile Creek
Today's Weather: Fair 71° NE 5mph
Coming up: Partly Cloudy
Flow Rate
0 CFS
50th percentile · Typical
Summer mode - skinny but moving
24h trend
-73%
N E S W 2 NNW mph wind 72h ago now High 44 Normal 20 Low 14 Flood 282 OPT 6h 24h 72h
Summer fishability window 40–221 CFS
Current-month middle flow band for warm-water fishing
72h movement slight rise (+15%)
Distance skinny but moving
Low water — projection flat
Confidence: 60%
Sources: recent regression
Clear · 70°F · NNW 2mph
30.03"
Guide says: Dropping nicely at 30 CFS, water is clear, 56°F — active feeding range. Manage expectations, but don't stay home. Water is pulling back. That first fishable window opens soon. I Fish Therefore I Cancel.
"The Only Clock That Matters Is the Sun"

Clear water — steelhead can see everything, including you. Long leaders, lighter tippet (6lb fluoro), natural colors. Stay low and approach from downstream.

Water is on the warm edge (56°F) — fish are active but starting to think about dropping back. Fish dawn / late-evening windows.

How to Fish It

Technique

Fish are active in warmer water — swing flies, strip streamers, and cover water. Morning is best before temps climb too high.

Fly Selection

Clear water demands subtlety. Natural egg colors (Oregon cheese, pale peach), small stonefly nymphs (#12-#14), and pheasant tails. 6lb fluorocarbon tippet max.

Where to Fish

The drop is the best time. Fish are spread out and actively feeding. Hit the soft water on the inside seams, tailouts of runs, and the edges where fast meets slow. They're moving and eating.

Timing

Get out early. First light to 10am is your window before water temps climb. Evening can produce a second bite as things cool.

What's Coming

The river is just getting good on the drop, but more heavy rain is forecast. Fish this drop hard — it may be brief before the next rise.

Conditions

Bright skies — fish will hunker in deeper water and shaded lies. Focus on undercut banks, bridge shadows, and deeper runs.

Rigs to consider right now

Match the current report to a setup

All rig guides

Fall river plan

Twenty Mile Creek summer fishing targets

The river is in a transition window. Warm afternoons can turn on smallmouth and panfish while cooler pockets still matter.

Smallmouth Bass

Where: boulder runs, bridge shade, pool tails, creek-mouth rock, and lower-river current breaks on Twenty Mile Creek.

Move: tubes, Ned rigs, small jerkbaits, poppers, and crayfish-colored streamers.

Species guide →

Walleye

Where: lake mouths, harbor edges, deeper summer basin water, and low-light shoreline structure on Twenty Mile Creek.

Move: crawler harnesses, crankbaits, jigs, and evening presentations near moving water.

Species guide →

Panfish

Where: docks, weed edges, ponds, marina slips, brush, and shaded shoreline structure on Twenty Mile Creek.

Move: small jigs, waxworms, micro poppers, and slip floats for kids or fast action.

Species guide →

Northern Pike

Where: cooler weed edges, connected backwaters, tributary mouths, and ambush lanes on Twenty Mile Creek.

Move: spinnerbaits, spoons, jerkbaits, and quick releases when water warms.

Species guide →

Current read

Water temp 55.6°F. Clarity is clear. Overall rating: Fair for steelhead. Use the graph below to time falling or stabilizing flows before committing a trip.

Summer FAQ

What can I fish for on Twenty Mile Creek in summer?

Focus on the warm-water species shown above, then use the live flow, clarity, and temperature read to choose shade, rock, current breaks, creek mouths, lakefront structure, and low-light windows.

Steelhead care

Should I target steelhead on Twenty Mile Creek in summer?

Usually no. When water is warm, shift to smallmouth, walleye, panfish, pike, or another summer target instead of pressuring stressed trout.

7-Day Flow & Temperature

Flow distribution

1095-day history · n=2,080 · 84% confidence

50th percentile · Sweet spot
6h 24h 72h 30 CFS 14 p25 20 p50 44 p75 OPTIMAL freq
Now vs history
80 CFS below optimal
Optimal window
110–350 CFS
Per-river researched optimal range
Typical range
14–44 CFS
25th–75th percentile
Seasonal context: Current flow is below typical for September. September median on this river: 68 CFS (n=247 hourly samples).
Clarity vs flow ranges
Steelhead Green likely now
14–39 CFS typical
Stained
389–548 CFS typical
Muddy
909–1,514 CFS typical
Sweet spot: Historically the productive zone.
-2 -1 0 1 2 82575217626 Theoretical z (standard normal) Sample flow (CFS)
Sample quantiles | Theoretical line Fair fit — tails diverge (66%)

Points on the dashed line mean the river's flow distribution is log-normal. Bows at the tails suggest multiple flow regimes (snowmelt vs rain events) or sensor artifacts. The math for this river uses log-space statistics, so a poor fit here is a reason to squint at the optimal zone.

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Near Twenty Mile Creek

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Frank's Tackle

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East End Angler

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Full-service bait and tackle between creek access points. Live bait, tackle, fish cleaning, and smoked steelhead exchange.

Keystone Fly Girl

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Gooses Steelhead Guide Service

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Erie Steelhead Outfitters

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30-Day Statistics

Min Flow
13 CFS
Max Flow
2,607 CFS
Avg Flow
136 CFS
Min Temp
55.6°F
Max Temp
55.6°F
Avg Temp
55.6°F

7-Day Fishing Outlook

Multiple days of heavy rain ahead — expect significant flow increases and muddy water. Plan trips for windows between rain events or 1-2 days after.

Best day to fish: Saturday — Warm for steelhead season — focus on early morning when water is coolest.

Monday is the day before rain moves in — barometric pressure drop often triggers aggressive feeding. Don't miss it.

Daily Fishing Forecast

Weather-based daily ratings — independent of current river flow. A "good" forecast day can still mean a blown-out river. Cross-reference with the Guide's Report above for a complete picture.

Today — Angler's Report

fair fishing
  • Dry conditions — flows should remain stable. Good day to target tailouts and runs.
  • Warm for steelhead season — focus on early morning when water is coolest.

NWS Forecast Detail

This Afternoon: Sunny, with a high near 71. Northeast wind around 5 mph.
Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 60. Southeast wind 3 to 8 mph.

Saturday — Angler's Report

good fishing
  • Warm for steelhead season — focus on early morning when water is coolest.

NWS Forecast Detail

Saturday: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 79. South wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Saturday Night: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. South wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Sunday — Angler's Report

good fishing
  • Warm for steelhead season — focus on early morning when water is coolest.

NWS Forecast Detail

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 76. Southwest wind around 9 mph.
Sunday Night: A slight chance of rain showers between 8pm and 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 60. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Monday — Angler's Report

fair fishing
  • Dry conditions — flows should remain stable. Good day to target tailouts and runs.
  • Warm for steelhead season — focus on early morning when water is coolest.

NWS Forecast Detail

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 70.
Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 62.

Tuesday — Angler's Report

fair fishing
  • Moderate rain will push flows up. Water may get stained to muddy — switch to bright flies and heavier weight.
  • Warm for steelhead season — focus on early morning when water is coolest.

NWS Forecast Detail

Tuesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 80. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Tuesday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Wednesday — Angler's Report

fair fishing
  • Moderate rain will push flows up. Water may get stained to muddy — switch to bright flies and heavier weight.
  • Warm for steelhead season — focus on early morning when water is coolest.

NWS Forecast Detail

Wednesday: A chance of rain showers before 8am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 74. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Wednesday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Thursday — Angler's Report

fair fishing
  • Moderate rain will push flows up. Water may get stained to muddy — switch to bright flies and heavier weight.
  • Warm for steelhead season — focus on early morning when water is coolest.

NWS Forecast Detail

Thursday: Rain showers likely before 2pm, then showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 75. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Thursday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62.

Forecast via NWS, updated 1 hour ago (2:01 PM EDT). Fishing ratings are estimates based on weather — always check current river conditions.

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