Vermilion River @ Vermilion

Fair
Confidence: 54%
Sources: recent regression

About Vermilion River @ Vermilion

The Vermilion River features scenic fishing areas and consistent steelhead runs.

Best fishing during spring runs. The optimal fishing flow on Vermilion River @ Vermilion is 90–225 CFS — flows above this range are typically too high and stained, flows below run low and clear. The river's long-term median flow is approximately 132 CFS, computed from the last several years of USGS gauge readings.

Current conditions (live, updated every 15 minutes): flow 20 CFS, clarity clear. Steelhead Addiction's Guide's Report rates the river FAIR as of this reading.

STORM WATCHING

SPC Marginal risk overhead. Gauges still calm.

Flow Rate
20
CFS
Gauge Height
2.08
ft
Water Temp
-
°F
Air Temp
69
°F
Clarity
Clear
Wind
🌬 8 mph
WSW
Side

Last updated: 2 minutes ago (8:45 AM EDT)

Conditions today: Fair. Trending: improving. Storm watching.

Flow Pressure Air temp, scaled Rain per hour Storm pulse window Hourly flow pending Confidence: 0.54

Three days of nothing. 24 CFS held within 31%, water sat at 0°F, barometer barely moved. These are the days where the lake just shrugs at us. If the bite is on, no obvious reason. If it's off, also no obvious reason. Quiet sky on the way. Conditions should hold. Storm lifecycle says WATCHING. SPC Marginal risk overhead. Gauges still calm. This is a pre-storm read; conditions can change fast once rain reaches the gauge.

Lookback window Jul 23, 8 am to Jul 26, 8 am ET. Data refresh every 15 min. This is a pattern read, not proof of causation; fish reserve the right to embarrass the spreadsheet.
Flow Pressure Air temp, scaled Rain per hour Storm pulse window Hourly flow pending

Three days of nothing. 29 CFS held within 113%, water sat at 0°F, barometer barely moved. These are the days where the lake just shrugs at us. If the bite is on, no obvious reason. If it's off, also no obvious reason. Quiet sky on the way. Conditions should hold. Storm lifecycle says WATCHING. SPC Marginal risk overhead. Gauges still calm. This is a pre-storm read; conditions can change fast once rain reaches the gauge.

Lookback window Jul 19, 8 am to Jul 26, 8 am ET. Data refresh every 15 min. This is a pattern read, not proof of causation; fish reserve the right to embarrass the spreadsheet.

Guide's Report

fair smallmouth bass fishing

Based on current conditions as of Sun, Jul 26 at 8:45 AM EDT (2 minutes ago)

Report generated 8:48:03 AM EDT

Running 20 CFS, water is clear. Not ideal, but persistent anglers find fish. Visibility is high. Stealth is your best friend. Steelhead Alley: Where 45° Is Tropical.

Steelhead green DAWN DAWN DUSK 80° 3% 84° 10% 81° 38% 72° 5% 70° 6% 72° 7% Sunset 8:52pm Solar Noon 1:35pm Dawn 5:47am Dusk 9:24pm Sunrise 6:19am Dawn 5:48am 20 CFS Summer skinny but moving 🌔 90% Waxing Gibbous N E S W 8 WSW mph 29.94" inHg stable Now 8:48am
Vermilion River @ Vermilion
Today's Weather: Good 85° 38% rain W 7mph
Coming up: Chance Showers And Thunderstorms then Partly...
Flow Rate
0 CFS · 2.08 ft
4th percentile · Very Low
Summer mode - skinny but moving
24h trend
-9.6%
N E S W 8 WSW mph wind 72h ago now High 291 Normal 132 Low 60 Flood 1,077 OPT 6h 24h 72h 2.08ft
Summer fishability window 29–62 CFS
Current-month middle flow band for warm-water fishing
72h movement falling (-18.3%)
Distance skinny but moving · 2.08ft
Low water — projection flat
Confidence: 54%
Sources: recent regression
Clouds · 69°F · WSW 8mph
29.94"
Guide says: Running 20 CFS, water is clear. Not ideal, but persistent anglers find fish. Visibility is high. Stealth is your best friend. Steelhead Alley: Where 45° Is Tropical.
"I Fish Therefore I Cancel"

Flow is low — fish are stacked in the deepest pools and runs. Approach carefully, they spook easy.

Clear water — ideal for visual hunters like smallmouth. Long leaders, natural colors, and finesse presentations like drop-shots will produce.

How to Fish It

Fly/Lure Selection

Clear water demands finesse. 6-8lb fluoro, natural colored tubes (watermelon, green pumpkin), 3-inch drop-shot worms, or small swimbaits.

Where to Fish

Target boulder runs, bedrock pools, bridge pilings, and shaded banks where river smallies find cover.

Storm Context

STORM WATCHING

SPC Marginal risk overhead. Gauges still calm.

Rain is in the forecast window. Gauges may look innocent right now, but this is the part where the river starts making plans without telling us.

  • - Front-load the trip before the weather arrives.
  • - Bring rain gear and keep an eye on radar.
  • - Re-check the gauge before committing to a longer drive.

What's Coming

Heavy rain is incoming — fish NOW. Current conditions are fishable but the river will blow out. This is your window.

Rigs to consider right now

Match the current report to a setup

All rig guides

Summer river plan

Vermilion River summer fishing targets

Use the current flow, clarity, and sky conditions to choose the target. Summer fish usually reward shade, structure, and low-light timing.

Smallmouth Bass

Peak

Where: boulder runs, bridge shade, pool tails, creek-mouth rock, and lower-river current breaks on Vermilion River.

Move: tubes, Ned rigs, small jerkbaits, poppers, and crayfish-colored streamers.

Species guide →

Walleye

Peak

Where: lake mouths, harbor edges, deeper summer basin water, and low-light shoreline structure on Vermilion River.

Move: crawler harnesses, crankbaits, jigs, and evening presentations near moving water.

Species guide →

Panfish

Peak

Where: docks, weed edges, ponds, marina slips, brush, and shaded shoreline structure on Vermilion River.

Move: small jigs, waxworms, micro poppers, and slip floats for kids or fast action.

Species guide →

Northern Pike

Where: cooler weed edges, connected backwaters, tributary mouths, and ambush lanes on Vermilion River.

Move: spinnerbaits, spoons, jerkbaits, and quick releases when water warms.

Species guide →

Current read

Clarity is clear. Overall rating: Fair for smallmouth bass. Use the graph below to time falling or stabilizing flows before committing a trip.

Summer FAQ

What can I fish for on Vermilion River in summer?

Focus on the warm-water species shown above, then use the live flow, clarity, and temperature read to choose shade, rock, current breaks, creek mouths, lakefront structure, and low-light windows.

Steelhead care

Should I target steelhead on Vermilion River in summer?

Usually no. When water is warm, shift to smallmouth, walleye, panfish, pike, or another summer target instead of pressuring stressed trout.

7-Day Flow & Temperature

Flow distribution

1095-day history · n=2,168 · 85% confidence

4th percentile · Low
6h 24h 72h 20 CFS 60 p25 132 p50 291 p75 OPTIMAL freq
Now vs history
70 CFS below optimal
Optimal window
90–225 CFS
Per-river researched optimal range
Typical range
60–291 CFS
25th–75th percentile
Seasonal context: Current flow is below typical for July. July median on this river: 40 CFS (n=585 hourly samples).
Clarity vs flow ranges
Steelhead Green likely now
46–129 CFS typical
Stained
253–341 CFS typical
Muddy
542–1,339 CFS typical
Low: Below typical — fish may be hugging deeper runs.
-2 -1 0 1 2 19692418342,874 Theoretical z (standard normal) Sample flow (CFS)
Sample quantiles | Theoretical line Excellent fit (91%)

Points on the dashed line mean the river's flow distribution is log-normal. Bows at the tails suggest multiple flow regimes (snowmelt vs rain events) or sensor artifacts. The math for this river uses log-space statistics, so a poor fit here is a reason to squint at the optimal zone.

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Near Vermilion River @ Vermilion

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30-Day Statistics

Min Flow
20 CFS
Max Flow
2,520 CFS
Avg Flow
121 CFS
Min Temp
-
Max Temp
-
Avg Temp
-

7-Day Fishing Outlook

Multiple days of heavy rain ahead — expect significant flow increases and muddy water. Plan trips for windows between rain events or 1-2 days after.

Best day to fish: Today — Light rain will bump flows slightly and give overcast skies — steelhead feed aggressively in these conditions.

Today is the day before rain moves in — barometric pressure drop often triggers aggressive feeding. Don't miss it.

Daily Fishing Forecast

Weather-based daily ratings — independent of current river flow. A "good" forecast day can still mean a blown-out river. Cross-reference with the Guide's Report above for a complete picture.

Today — Angler's Report

good fishing
  • Light rain will bump flows slightly and give overcast skies — steelhead feed aggressively in these conditions.
  • Warm for steelhead season — focus on early morning when water is coolest.

NWS Forecast Detail

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. West wind around 7 mph. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Tonight: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 68. Southwest wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Monday — Angler's Report

poor fishing
  • Heavy rain expected — river will likely blow out. Fish early before it rises or wait 24-48 hours after for the drop.
  • Warm for steelhead season — focus on early morning when water is coolest.

NWS Forecast Detail

Monday: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between 1pm and 2pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 2pm and 5pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 88. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Monday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm, then showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 69. Southwest wind 7 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Tuesday — Angler's Report

poor fishing
  • Heavy rain expected — river will likely blow out. Fish early before it rises or wait 24-48 hours after for the drop.
  • Warm for steelhead season — focus on early morning when water is coolest.

NWS Forecast Detail

Tuesday: Showers and thunderstorms before 2pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 80. Northwest wind 12 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Tuesday Night: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 64. Chance of precipitation is 20%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Wednesday — Angler's Report

fair fishing
  • Dry conditions — flows should remain stable. Good day to target tailouts and runs.
  • Warm for steelhead season — focus on early morning when water is coolest.
  • Breezy conditions (16 mph N) — adjust casting angles and expect some difficulty with line control.

NWS Forecast Detail

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 78.
Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 62.

Thursday — Angler's Report

fair fishing
  • Dry conditions — flows should remain stable. Good day to target tailouts and runs.
  • Warm for steelhead season — focus on early morning when water is coolest.

NWS Forecast Detail

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 79.
Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 62.

Friday — Angler's Report

good fishing
  • Warm for steelhead season — focus on early morning when water is coolest.

NWS Forecast Detail

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 81.
Friday Night: A slight chance of rain showers after 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65.

Saturday — Angler's Report

good fishing
  • Light rain will bump flows slightly and give overcast skies — steelhead feed aggressively in these conditions.
  • Warm for steelhead season — focus on early morning when water is coolest.

NWS Forecast Detail

Saturday: A slight chance of rain showers before 2pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 83. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Saturday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 66.

Forecast via NWS, updated 44 minutes ago (8:03 AM EDT). Fishing ratings are estimates based on weather — always check current river conditions.

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