Black River (Watertown)

Good

About Black River (Watertown)

Black River (Watertown) is a Lake Ontario tributary in New York, draining a 1,864-square-mile watershed. The river is part of the Lake Ontario steelhead and salmon fishery — distinct from Steelhead Alley but sharing the same species mix. Stocking and regulations are managed by the New York Department of Environmental Conservation (NY DEC).

The optimal fishing flow on Black River (Watertown) is 2,000–5,500 CFS — flows above this range are typically too high and stained, flows below run low and clear. The river's long-term median flow is approximately 6,824 CFS, computed from the last several years of USGS gauge readings. Steelhead enter the river from late September through early May, with peak runs typically in October–November and February–April.

Current conditions (live, updated every 15 minutes): flow 2,460 CFS, clarity clear. Steelhead Addiction's Guide's Report rates the river GOOD as of this reading.

Flow Rate
2,460
CFS
Gauge Height
3.73
ft
Water Temp
-
°F
Air Temp
48.1
°F
Clarity
Clear
Wind
5
mph SW

Last updated: 1 minute ago (6:15 AM EDT)

Guide's Report

good smallmouth bass fishing

Based on current conditions as of Wed, Jun 3 at 6:15 AM EDT (1 minute ago)

Report generated 6:16:53 AM EDT

Dropping nicely at 2,460 CFS, water is clear. A good day if you read the water right. The river is clearing up. Timing is everything. Tell Them I'm in a Meeting With a Fish.

Steelhead green DAWN DAWN DUSK 72° 1% 77° 66° 60° 57° Sunset 8:41pm Solar Noon 1:01pm Dawn 4:47am Dusk 9:16pm Sunrise 5:22am Dawn 4:46am 2,460 CFS 🌖 91% Waning Gibbous N E S W 5 SW mph 30.24" inHg stable Now 6:16am
Black River (Watertown)
Today's Weather: Fair 1% rain S 5mph
Coming up: Mostly Clear
Flow Rate
0 CFS · 3.73 ft
5th percentile · Very Low
24h trend
-16.5%
N E S W 5 SW mph wind 72h ago now High 10,100 Normal 6,824 Low 4,553 Flood 23,445 OPT 6h 24h 72h 3.73ft
Optimal window 2,000–5,500 CFS
Status In the sweet spot · 3.73ft
Falls below range by tomorrow 9:48am (~2,000 CFS)
Clear · 48°F · SW 5mph
30.24"
Guide says: Dropping nicely at 2,460 CFS, water is clear. A good day if you read the water right. The river is clearing up. Timing is everything. Tell Them I'm in a Meeting With a Fish.
"Tell Them I'm in a Meeting With a Fish"

Flow is on the drop and in the zone — this is the window smallmouth guides dream about.

Clear water — ideal for visual hunters like smallmouth. Long leaders, natural colors, and finesse presentations like drop-shots will produce.

How to Fish It

Fly/Lure Selection

Clear water demands finesse. 6-8lb fluoro, natural colored tubes (watermelon, green pumpkin), 3-inch drop-shot worms, or small swimbaits.

Where to Fish

Work the transition zones where fast water meets slow eddies. Smallmouth hold on the edges of currents to intercept forage.

What's Coming

Dry weather ahead — the river will continue to drop and clear. Conditions will improve each day. The next 2-3 days look very promising.

Conditions

Bright skies — fish will hunker in deeper water and shaded lies. Focus on undercut banks, bridge shadows, and deeper runs.

Summer Species on Black River

Beyond steelhead — species actively targeted in Great Lakes tributaries right now.

See summer gear →

7-Day Flow & Temperature

Flow distribution

1095-day history · n=2,232 · 85% confidence

5th percentile · Low
6h 24h 72h 2,460 CFS 4,553 p25 6,824 p50 10,100 p75 OPTIMAL freq
Now vs history
In the sweet spot
Optimal window
2,000–5,500 CFS
Per-river researched optimal range
Typical range
4,553–10,100 CFS
25th–75th percentile
Seasonal context: Current flow is below typical for June. June median on this river: 3,016 CFS (n=56 hourly samples).
Clarity vs flow ranges
Steelhead Green likely now
2,510–4,454 CFS typical
Stained
4,620–5,935 CFS typical
Muddy
8,225–14,050 CFS typical
Low: Below typical — fish may be hugging deeper runs.
-2 -1 0 1 2 1,7763,6077,32214,86330,169 Theoretical z (standard normal) Sample flow (CFS)
Sample quantiles | Theoretical line Excellent fit (94%)

Points on the dashed line mean the river's flow distribution is log-normal. Bows at the tails suggest multiple flow regimes (snowmelt vs rain events) or sensor artifacts. The math for this river uses log-space statistics, so a poor fit here is a reason to squint at the optimal zone.

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30-Day Statistics

Min Flow
1,960 CFS
Max Flow
6,430 CFS
Avg Flow
4,530 CFS
Min Temp
-
Max Temp
-
Avg Temp
-

7-Day Fishing Outlook

Multiple days of heavy rain ahead — expect significant flow increases and muddy water. Plan trips for windows between rain events or 1-2 days after.

Thursday is the day before rain moves in — barometric pressure drop often triggers aggressive feeding. Don't miss it.

Daily Fishing Forecast

Weather-based daily ratings — independent of current river flow. A "good" forecast day can still mean a blown-out river. Cross-reference with the Guide's Report above for a complete picture.

Overnight — Angler's Report

fair fishing
  • Dry conditions — flows should remain stable. Good day to target tailouts and runs.

NWS Forecast Detail

Overnight: Clear, with a low around 51. South wind around 5 mph.

Wednesday — Angler's Report

fair fishing
  • Dry conditions — flows should remain stable. Good day to target tailouts and runs.
  • Warm for steelhead season — focus on early morning when water is coolest.

NWS Forecast Detail

Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 78. West wind 2 to 8 mph.
Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 55. Southwest wind around 7 mph.

Thursday — Angler's Report

fair fishing
  • Dry conditions — flows should remain stable. Good day to target tailouts and runs.
  • Warm for steelhead season — focus on early morning when water is coolest.

NWS Forecast Detail

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 78. Southwest wind 7 to 10 mph.
Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 59. Southwest wind 5 to 8 mph.

Friday — Angler's Report

fair fishing
  • Moderate rain will push flows up. Water may get stained to muddy — switch to bright flies and heavier weight.
  • Warm for steelhead season — focus on early morning when water is coolest.

NWS Forecast Detail

Friday: Partly sunny, with a high near 80. Southwest wind 7 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.
Friday Night: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between 8pm and 2am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 61. Southwest wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Saturday — Angler's Report

fair fishing
  • Moderate rain will push flows up. Water may get stained to muddy — switch to bright flies and heavier weight.
  • Warm for steelhead season — focus on early morning when water is coolest.

NWS Forecast Detail

Saturday: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 76. Southwest wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Saturday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Sunday — Angler's Report

fair fishing
  • Moderate rain will push flows up. Water may get stained to muddy — switch to bright flies and heavier weight.
  • Warm for steelhead season — focus on early morning when water is coolest.

NWS Forecast Detail

Sunday: Rain showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 75. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Sunday Night: A chance of rain showers before 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 56. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Monday — Angler's Report

fair fishing
  • Dry conditions — flows should remain stable. Good day to target tailouts and runs.
  • Warm for steelhead season — focus on early morning when water is coolest.

NWS Forecast Detail

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 79.
Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 57.

Tuesday — Angler's Report

fair fishing
  • Dry conditions — flows should remain stable. Good day to target tailouts and runs.
  • Warm for steelhead season — focus on early morning when water is coolest.

NWS Forecast Detail

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 80.

Forecast via NWS, updated 1 hour ago (5:04 AM EDT). Fishing ratings are estimates based on weather — always check current river conditions.

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