Johnson Creek

Good
Confidence: 32%
Sources: recent regression, storm pulse, NWS QPF

About Johnson Creek

Johnson Creek at Lyndonville drains 89 square miles of Niagara and Orleans Counties into Lake Ontario, a smaller-water destination that gets overshadowed by the nearby Oak Orchard system. The creek runs through tight wooded reaches with public access at the village and the Lakeside Beach State Park mouth. Best for anglers who like quieter water than the dam-controlled Lake Ontario rivers.

October through April. Rain-dependent flows. Lakeside Beach access is best in late fall and early spring. The optimal fishing flow on Johnson Creek is 40–100 CFS — flows above this range are typically too high and stained, flows below run low and clear. The river's long-term median flow is approximately 94 CFS, computed from the last several years of USGS gauge readings.

Current conditions (live, updated every 15 minutes): flow 56 CFS, water 76.6°F, clarity clear. Steelhead Addiction's Guide's Report rates the river GOOD as of this reading.

Johnson Creek has no active USGS flow gauge.

Gauge height and water temperature are available from the local sensor, but real-time discharge is not published. Use weather, forecasts, and angler reports as your primary indicators.

STORM WATCHING
Expected: 8:00 PM EDT

1.1" rain expected by 8 pm; SPC Marginal risk overhead. Gauges still calm.

Flow Rate
56
CFS
Gauge Height
11.74
ft
Water Temp
76.6
°F
Air Temp
83.1
°F
Clarity
Clear
Wind
🌬 Calm
≤5 mph

Last updated: 14 minutes ago (5:45 PM EDT)

Conditions today: Good. Trending: improving. Storm watching.

Flow Pressure Air temp, scaled Rain per hour Storm pulse window Hourly flow pending Confidence: 0.32

Three days of nothing. 70 CFS held within 93%, water sat at 72°F, barometer barely moved. These are the days where the lake just shrugs at us. If the bite is on, no obvious reason. If it's off, also no obvious reason. Useful window is now through ~7 p.m.; projection has flow rising above range around tomorrow ~8 p.m.. Heads up — 0.70 inch of rain is on the way over the next 24 hours. Storm lifecycle says WATCHING. 1.1" rain expected by 8 pm; SPC Marginal risk overhead. Gauges still calm. This is a pre-storm read; conditions can change fast once rain reaches the gauge.

Lookback window Jul 24, 5 pm to Jul 27, 5 pm ET. Data refresh every 15 min. This is a pattern read, not proof of causation; fish reserve the right to embarrass the spreadsheet.
Flow Pressure Air temp, scaled Rain per hour Storm pulse window Hourly flow pending

Three days of nothing. 159 CFS held within 307%, water sat at 70°F, barometer barely moved. These are the days where the lake just shrugs at us. If the bite is on, no obvious reason. If it's off, also no obvious reason. Useful window is now through ~7 p.m.; projection has flow rising above range around tomorrow ~8 p.m.. Heads up — 0.70 inch of rain is on the way over the next 24 hours. Storm lifecycle says WATCHING. 1.1" rain expected by 8 pm; SPC Marginal risk overhead. Gauges still calm. This is a pre-storm read; conditions can change fast once rain reaches the gauge.

Lookback window Jul 20, 5 pm to Jul 27, 5 pm ET. Data refresh every 15 min. This is a pattern read, not proof of causation; fish reserve the right to embarrass the spreadsheet.

Guide's Report

good smallmouth bass fishing

Based on current conditions as of Mon, Jul 27 at 5:45 PM EDT (14 minutes ago)

Report generated 5:59:35 PM EDT

Holding steady at 56 CFS, water is clear, 77°F — prime summer feeding temp. Conditions are cooperating. Fish smart and stay patient. No surprises in the flow. Pick your favorite run. Increased activity — falling pressure. Fly Box Bigger Than Your Tax Refund.

Steelhead green DAWN DUSK 78° 18% 71° 56% 69° 80% 70° 86% 75° 52% 75° 34% Sunset 8:41pm Dusk 9:14pm Sunrise 5:59am Solar Noon 1:19pm Dawn 5:26am 56 CFS Summer falling and cleari 🌔 97% Waxing Gibbous N E S W 2 S mph 29.71" inHg falling 76.6°F Water Temp Now 5:59pm
Johnson Creek
Today's Weather: Poor 83° 93% rain E 7mph
Coming up: Chance Showers And Thunderstorms then Showers...
Flow Rate
0 CFS · 11.74 ft
24th percentile · Low
Summer mode - falling and clearing
24h trend
-18.6%
N E S W 2 S mph wind 72h ago now +2h High 1,480 Normal 94 Low 53 Flood 1,480 OPT 6h 24h 72h 11.74ft
Summer fishability window 27–84 CFS
Current-month middle flow band for warm-water fishing
72h movement sharp fall (-49.9%)
Status falling and clearing · 11.74ft
Closing in ~2h
Confidence: 32%
Sources: recent regression, storm pulse, NWS QPF
Clear · 83°F · S 2mph
29.71"
Guide says: Holding steady at 56 CFS, water is clear, 77°F — prime summer feeding temp. Conditions are cooperating. Fish smart and stay patient. No surprises in the flow. Pick your favorite run. Increased activity — falling pressure. Fly Box Bigger Than Your Tax Refund.
"Broke Off on Something Big. Again."

Flow is stable in the ideal range — fish are settled and holding in predictable lies.

Clear water — ideal for visual hunters like smallmouth. Long leaders, natural colors, and finesse presentations like drop-shots will produce.

Water is warm (77°F) for smallmouth. Focus on early morning, late evening, and deep oxygenated runs.

How to Fish It

Technique

Topwater time. Early morning and late evening topwater action can be explosive. Whopper Ploppers, Spook Jrs, or frog patterns over rocky flats and shorelines.

Fly/Lure Selection

Clear water demands finesse. 6-8lb fluoro, natural colored tubes (watermelon, green pumpkin), 3-inch drop-shot worms, or small swimbaits.

Where to Fish

Focus on current breaks, behind large boulders, and slack water eddies along the banks.

Timing

Dawn and dusk windows are prime. Get out early before the sun is high, or fish the last 90 minutes of light.

Storm Context

STORM WATCHING

1.1" rain expected by 8 pm; SPC Marginal risk overhead. Gauges still calm.

Rain is forecast within the next 2.0073174022222 hours. Gauges may look innocent right now, but expect movement around 8:00 PM EDT.

  • - Fish before the rain window if you are going.
  • - Bring rain gear and keep an eye on radar.
  • - Re-check the gauge before committing to a longer drive.

What's Coming

Heavy rain is incoming — fish NOW. Current conditions are fishable but the river will blow out. This is your window.

Conditions

Bright skies — fish will hunker in deeper water and shaded lies. Focus on undercut banks, bridge shadows, and deeper runs.

Rigs to consider right now

Match the current report to a setup

All rig guides

Summer river plan

Johnson Creek summer fishing targets

Warm water pushes the best bite toward dawn, dusk, shade, and deeper holding water. Handle trout carefully or switch targets.

Smallmouth Bass

Peak

Where: boulder runs, bridge shade, pool tails, creek-mouth rock, and lower-river current breaks on Johnson Creek.

Move: tubes, Ned rigs, small jerkbaits, poppers, and crayfish-colored streamers.

Species guide →

Walleye

Peak

Where: lake mouths, harbor edges, deeper summer basin water, and low-light shoreline structure on Johnson Creek.

Move: crawler harnesses, crankbaits, jigs, and evening presentations near moving water.

Species guide →

Panfish

Peak

Where: docks, weed edges, ponds, marina slips, brush, and shaded shoreline structure on Johnson Creek.

Move: small jigs, waxworms, micro poppers, and slip floats for kids or fast action.

Species guide →

Northern Pike

Where: cooler weed edges, connected backwaters, tributary mouths, and ambush lanes on Johnson Creek.

Move: spinnerbaits, spoons, jerkbaits, and quick releases when water warms.

Species guide →

Current read

Water temp 76.6°F. Clarity is clear. Overall rating: Good for smallmouth bass. Use the graph below to time falling or stabilizing flows before committing a trip.

Summer FAQ

What can I fish for on Johnson Creek in summer?

Focus on the warm-water species shown above, then use the live flow, clarity, and temperature read to choose shade, rock, current breaks, creek mouths, lakefront structure, and low-light windows.

Steelhead care

Should I target steelhead on Johnson Creek in summer?

Usually no. When water is warm, shift to smallmouth, walleye, panfish, pike, or another summer target instead of pressuring stressed trout.

7-Day Flow & Temperature

Flow distribution

1095-day history · n=2,188 · 85% confidence

24th percentile · Low
6h 24h 72h 56 CFS 53 p25 94 p50 1,480 p75 OPTIMAL freq
Now vs history
In the sweet spot
Optimal window
40–100 CFS
Per-river researched optimal range
Typical range
53–1,480 CFS
25th–75th percentile
Seasonal context: Current flow is typical for July. July median on this river: 35 CFS (n=632 hourly samples).
Clarity vs flow ranges
Steelhead Green likely now
32–79 CFS typical
Stained
92–145 CFS typical
Muddy
825–1,480 CFS typical
Low: Below typical — fish may be hugging deeper runs.
-2 -1 0 1 2 17571825761,825 Theoretical z (standard normal) Sample flow (CFS)
Sample quantiles | Theoretical line Fair fit — tails diverge (70%)

Points on the dashed line mean the river's flow distribution is log-normal. Bows at the tails suggest multiple flow regimes (snowmelt vs rain events) or sensor artifacts. The math for this river uses log-space statistics, so a poor fit here is a reason to squint at the optimal zone.

Recent Angler Reports

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Near Johnson Creek

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30-Day Statistics

Min Flow
-87 CFS
Max Flow
571 CFS
Avg Flow
82 CFS
Min Temp
65.7°F
Max Temp
84°F
Avg Temp
75.5°F

7-Day Fishing Outlook

Multiple days of heavy rain ahead — expect significant flow increases and muddy water. Plan trips for windows between rain events or 1-2 days after.

Best day to fish: Thursday — Light rain will bump flows slightly and give overcast skies — steelhead feed aggressively in these conditions.

Daily Fishing Forecast

Weather-based daily ratings — independent of current river flow. A "good" forecast day can still mean a blown-out river. Cross-reference with the Guide's Report above for a complete picture.

Today — Angler's Report

poor fishing
  • Heavy rain expected — river will likely blow out. Fish early before it rises or wait 24-48 hours after for the drop.
  • Warm for steelhead season — focus on early morning when water is coolest.

NWS Forecast Detail

This Afternoon: Partly sunny, with a high near 83. East wind around 7 mph.
Tonight: A chance of showers and thunderstorms between 8pm and 11pm, then showers and thunderstorms likely between 11pm and 1am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 1am and 3am, then showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. Southeast wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.

Tuesday — Angler's Report

poor fishing
  • Heavy rain expected — river will likely blow out. Fish early before it rises or wait 24-48 hours after for the drop.
  • Warm for steelhead season — focus on early morning when water is coolest.

NWS Forecast Detail

Tuesday: Showers and thunderstorms before noon, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 77. East wind 6 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.
Tuesday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 7pm, then showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. North wind 10 to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Wednesday — Angler's Report

poor fishing
  • Heavy rain expected — river will likely blow out. Fish early before it rises or wait 24-48 hours after for the drop.
  • Warm for steelhead season — focus on early morning when water is coolest.
  • Breezy conditions (18 mph N) — adjust casting angles and expect some difficulty with line control.

NWS Forecast Detail

Wednesday: Rain showers before 2pm, then showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a high near 75. North wind around 18 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Wednesday Night: Showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64. North wind around 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Thursday — Angler's Report

good fishing
  • Light rain will bump flows slightly and give overcast skies — steelhead feed aggressively in these conditions.
  • Warm for steelhead season — focus on early morning when water is coolest.

NWS Forecast Detail

Thursday: A chance of rain showers before 2pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 79. Northwest wind 8 to 12 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Thursday Night: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 65. Northwest wind around 7 mph.

Friday — Angler's Report

fair fishing
  • Dry conditions — flows should remain stable. Good day to target tailouts and runs.
  • Warm for steelhead season — focus on early morning when water is coolest.

NWS Forecast Detail

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 78.
Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 67.

Saturday — Angler's Report

good fishing
  • Warm for steelhead season — focus on early morning when water is coolest.

NWS Forecast Detail

Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 79.
Saturday Night: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67.

Sunday — Angler's Report

good fishing
  • Light rain will bump flows slightly and give overcast skies — steelhead feed aggressively in these conditions.
  • Warm for steelhead season — focus on early morning when water is coolest.

NWS Forecast Detail

Sunday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 81. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Sunday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66.

Forecast via NWS, updated 55 minutes ago (5:04 PM EDT). Fishing ratings are estimates based on weather — always check current river conditions.

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