Wed May 13-14 New York (Lake Ontario) Storm

Meteorological Analysis

A moderate storm system rolled through the Steelhead Alley region starting on Wednesday, May 13, 2026 and lasting until Thursday, May 14, 2026. The storm was active for approximately 22 hours, dumping a maximum of 0.58" of rain across affected zones. Geographically, the weather system impacted the New York (Lake Ontario) regions, causing rapid water-level rises on multiple tributaries.

Gauges recorded significant river responses, particularly along Salmon River (peaking at 945 CFS), Oak Orchard Creek (peaking at 1,440 CFS), Genesee River (peaking at 7,370 CFS), Sandy Creek (Hamlin) (peaking at 170 CFS), Irondequoit Creek (peaking at 219 CFS), Johnson Creek (peaking at 1,480 CFS), Eighteenmile Creek (Niagara) (peaking at 134 CFS), Black River (Watertown) (peaking at 4,940 CFS), Sandy Creek (Adams) (peaking at 666 CFS). Angling conditions deteriorated quickly during the peak flow periods, leading to temporary washouts. Gaging stations monitored the recovery times as flows began returning to their baselines, mapping out the best windows for fishermen to get back on the water.

From a weather prediction standpoint, the NWS forecasts for this event received an aggregate score card grade of 'B'. Gaging observations were matched against NWS precipitation models to assess the forecasting margins, highlighting the variance in local rainfall amounts across the lake shores.