Thu April 16-17 New York (Lake Erie) & New York (Lake Ontario) Storm

Meteorological Analysis

A major storm system rolled through the Steelhead Alley region starting on Thursday, April 16, 2026 and lasting until Friday, April 17, 2026. The storm was active for approximately 6 hours, dumping a maximum of 0.68" of rain across affected zones. Geographically, the weather system impacted the New York (Lake Erie), New York (Lake Ontario) regions, causing rapid water-level rises on multiple tributaries.

Gauges recorded significant river responses, particularly along Cattaraugus Creek (peaking at 3,820 CFS), Chautauqua Creek (peaking at 402 CFS), Eighteen Mile Creek (peaking at 1,060 CFS), Canadaway Creek (peaking at 468 CFS), Silver Creek (peaking at 325 CFS), Buffalo Creek (peaking at 1,420 CFS), Cazenovia Creek (peaking at 901 CFS), Salmon River (peaking at 2,570 CFS), Oak Orchard Creek (peaking at 2,040 CFS), Genesee River (peaking at 11,800 CFS), Sandy Creek (Hamlin) (peaking at 747 CFS), Irondequoit Creek (peaking at 745 CFS), Johnson Creek (peaking at 1,480 CFS), Eighteenmile Creek (Niagara) (peaking at 395 CFS), Black River (Watertown) (peaking at 9,480 CFS), Sandy Creek (Adams) (peaking at 1,350 CFS). Angling conditions deteriorated quickly during the peak flow periods, leading to temporary washouts. Gaging stations monitored the recovery times as flows began returning to their baselines, mapping out the best windows for fishermen to get back on the water.

From a weather prediction standpoint, the NWS forecasts for this event received an aggregate score card grade of 'B'. Gaging observations were matched against NWS precipitation models to assess the forecasting margins, highlighting the variance in local rainfall amounts across the lake shores.