Wed July 1-2 New York (Lake Erie) & New York (Lake Ontario) & Ohio Storm
Jul 1-2 severe storm -- 1.4" of rain across Steelhead Alley. Lake Erie tribs out through Thursday.
Meteorological Analysis
A severe storm system rolled through the Steelhead Alley region starting on Wednesday, July 1, 2026 and lasting until Thursday, July 2, 2026. The storm was active for approximately 2 hours, dumping a maximum of 1.44" of rain across affected zones. Geographically, the weather system impacted the New York (Lake Erie), New York (Lake Ontario), Ohio regions, causing rapid water-level rises on multiple tributaries.
Gauges recorded significant river responses, particularly along Conneaut Creek (peaking at 21 CFS), Grand River near Painesville (peaking at 62 CFS), Ashtabula River (peaking at 17 CFS), Rocky River near Berea (peaking at 94 CFS), Vermilion River @ Vermilion (peaking at 44 CFS), Cuyahoga River @ Independence (peaking at 350 CFS), Huron River (peaking at 53 CFS), Black River (peaking at 30 CFS), Brandy Run near Girard (peaking at 1 CFS), Chagrin River @ Willoughby (peaking at 51 CFS), Eighteen Mile Creek (peaking at 13 CFS), Buffalo Creek (peaking at 46 CFS), Cazenovia Creek (peaking at 49 CFS), Eighteenmile Creek (Niagara) (peaking at 82 CFS), Sandy Creek (Hamlin) (peaking at 53 CFS), Salmon River (peaking at 260 CFS), Irondequoit Creek (peaking at 92 CFS), Silver Creek (peaking at 5 CFS), Euclid Creek (peaking at 8 CFS), Genesee River (peaking at 1,100 CFS), Sandy Creek (Adams) (peaking at 730 CFS), Cattaraugus Creek (peaking at 226 CFS), Chautauqua Creek (peaking at 15 CFS), Canadaway Creek (peaking at 8 CFS), Black River (Watertown) (peaking at 3,550 CFS), Oak Orchard Creek (peaking at 1,680 CFS), Johnson Creek (peaking at 145 CFS). Angling conditions deteriorated quickly during the peak flow periods, leading to temporary washouts. Gaging stations monitored the recovery times as flows began returning to their baselines, mapping out the best windows for fishermen to get back on the water.
From a weather prediction standpoint, the NWS forecasts for this event received an aggregate score card grade of 'A'. Gaging observations were matched against NWS precipitation models to assess the forecasting margins, highlighting the variance in local rainfall amounts across the lake shores.
Tributary Response & Recovery
Conneaut Creek
- Pre-Storm Flow
- N/A
- Observed Peak
- 21 CFS
- Peak Time
- Jul 1, 23:00
Grand River near Painesville
- Pre-Storm Flow
- N/A
- Observed Peak
- 62 CFS
- Peak Time
- Jul 1, 23:00
Ashtabula River
- Pre-Storm Flow
- N/A
- Observed Peak
- 17 CFS
- Peak Time
- Jul 2, 00:45
Rocky River near Berea
- Pre-Storm Flow
- N/A
- Observed Peak
- 94 CFS
- Peak Time
- Jul 1, 23:30
Vermilion River @ Vermilion
- Pre-Storm Flow
- N/A
- Observed Peak
- 44 CFS
- Peak Time
- Jul 1, 23:00
Cuyahoga River @ Independence
- Pre-Storm Flow
- N/A
- Observed Peak
- 350 CFS
- Peak Time
- Jul 1, 23:00
Huron River
- Pre-Storm Flow
- N/A
- Observed Peak
- 53 CFS
- Peak Time
- Jul 1, 23:00
Black River
- Pre-Storm Flow
- N/A
- Observed Peak
- 30 CFS
- Peak Time
- Jul 1, 23:00
Brandy Run near Girard
- Pre-Storm Flow
- N/A
- Observed Peak
- 1 CFS
- Peak Time
- Jul 1, 23:00
Chagrin River @ Willoughby
- Pre-Storm Flow
- N/A
- Observed Peak
- 51 CFS
- Peak Time
- Jul 2, 01:00
Eighteen Mile Creek
- Pre-Storm Flow
- N/A
- Observed Peak
- 13 CFS
- Peak Time
- Jul 2, 01:00
Buffalo Creek
- Pre-Storm Flow
- N/A
- Observed Peak
- 46 CFS
- Peak Time
- Jul 1, 23:00
Cazenovia Creek
- Pre-Storm Flow
- N/A
- Observed Peak
- 49 CFS
- Peak Time
- Jul 1, 23:00
Eighteenmile Creek (Niagara)
- Pre-Storm Flow
- N/A
- Observed Peak
- 82 CFS
- Peak Time
- Jul 1, 23:00
Sandy Creek (Hamlin)
- Pre-Storm Flow
- N/A
- Observed Peak
- 53 CFS
- Peak Time
- Jul 1, 23:00
Salmon River
- Pre-Storm Flow
- 252 CFS
- Observed Peak
- 260 CFS
- Peak Time
- Jul 2, 03:00
- Baseline Return
- Jul 2, 04:00
Irondequoit Creek
- Pre-Storm Flow
- 86 CFS
- Observed Peak
- 92 CFS
- Peak Time
- Jul 2, 16:00
- Baseline Return
- Jul 2, 17:00
Silver Creek
- Pre-Storm Flow
- N/A
- Observed Peak
- 5 CFS
- Peak Time
- Jul 1, 23:00
Euclid Creek
- Pre-Storm Flow
- N/A
- Observed Peak
- 8 CFS
- Peak Time
- Jul 1, 23:00
Genesee River
- Pre-Storm Flow
- 508 CFS
- Observed Peak
- 1,100 CFS
- Peak Time
- Jul 2, 14:00
- Baseline Return
- Jul 2, 16:00
Sandy Creek (Adams)
- Pre-Storm Flow
- N/A
- Observed Peak
- 730 CFS
- Peak Time
- Jul 1, 23:00
- Recovers By
- Jul 2, 00:48
Cattaraugus Creek
- Pre-Storm Flow
- N/A
- Observed Peak
- 226 CFS
- Peak Time
- Jul 1, 23:30
Chautauqua Creek
- Pre-Storm Flow
- N/A
- Observed Peak
- 15 CFS
- Peak Time
- Jul 1, 23:00
Canadaway Creek
- Pre-Storm Flow
- N/A
- Observed Peak
- 8 CFS
- Peak Time
- Jul 1, 23:00
Black River (Watertown)
- Pre-Storm Flow
- 2,235 CFS
- Observed Peak
- 3,550 CFS
- Peak Time
- Jul 2, 20:00
- Baseline Return
- Jul 2, 21:00
Oak Orchard Creek
- Pre-Storm Flow
- N/A
- Observed Peak
- 1,680 CFS
- Peak Time
- Jul 1, 23:30
Johnson Creek
- Pre-Storm Flow
- N/A
- Observed Peak
- 145 CFS
- Peak Time
- Jul 2, 00:45
Fishing Guide & Tactics
Looking for advice on how to target steelhead on these rivers when they are recovering from a storm? Check out our master guides:
