Major Storm May 16, 2026 - May 17, 2026

Sat May 16-17 New York (Lake Erie) & New York (Lake Ontario) & Pennsylvania Storm

May 16-17 alley-wide storm -- 0.9" in 4hrs, Sandy Creek (Adams) blew out, Eighteenmile Creek (Niagara) fishable Sunday.

May 16-17 New York (Lake Erie) & New York (Lake Ontario) & Pennsylvania Storm Card

Meteorological Analysis

A major storm system rolled through the Steelhead Alley region starting on Saturday, May 16, 2026 and lasting until Sunday, May 17, 2026. The storm was active for approximately 4 hours, dumping a maximum of 0.92" of rain across affected zones. Geographically, the weather system impacted the New York (Lake Erie), New York (Lake Ontario), Pennsylvania regions, causing rapid water-level rises on multiple tributaries.

Gauges recorded significant river responses, particularly along Elk Creek (peaking at 32 CFS), Walnut Creek (peaking at 68 CFS), Twenty Mile Creek (peaking at 55 CFS), Crooked Creek (peaking at 14 CFS), Cattaraugus Creek (peaking at 877 CFS), Chautauqua Creek (peaking at 63 CFS), Eighteen Mile Creek (peaking at 116 CFS), Canadaway Creek (peaking at 108 CFS), Silver Creek (peaking at 43 CFS), Buffalo Creek (peaking at 263 CFS), Cazenovia Creek (peaking at 281 CFS), Salmon River (peaking at 531 CFS), Oak Orchard Creek (peaking at 1,430 CFS), Genesee River (peaking at 7,330 CFS), Sandy Creek (Hamlin) (peaking at 145 CFS), Irondequoit Creek (peaking at 315 CFS), Johnson Creek (peaking at 1,480 CFS), Eighteenmile Creek (Niagara) (peaking at 150 CFS), Black River (Watertown) (peaking at 4,780 CFS), Sandy Creek (Adams) (peaking at 293 CFS). Angling conditions deteriorated quickly during the peak flow periods, leading to temporary washouts. Gaging stations monitored the recovery times as flows began returning to their baselines, mapping out the best windows for fishermen to get back on the water.

From a weather prediction standpoint, the NWS forecasts for this event received an aggregate score card grade of 'B'. Gaging observations were matched against NWS precipitation models to assess the forecasting margins, highlighting the variance in local rainfall amounts across the lake shores.