Tue May 5-6 Alley Storm
May 5-6 superstorm -- 1.9" of rain across Steelhead Alley. Lake Erie tribs out through Saturday.
Meteorological Analysis
A severe storm system rolled through the Steelhead Alley region starting on Tuesday, May 5, 2026 and lasting until Wednesday, May 6, 2026. The storm was active for approximately 20 hours, dumping a maximum of 1.88" of rain across affected zones. Geographically, the weather system impacted the New York (Lake Erie), New York (Lake Ontario), Ohio, Pennsylvania regions, causing rapid water-level rises on multiple tributaries.
Gauges recorded significant river responses, particularly along Ashtabula River (peaking at 1,981 CFS), Conneaut Creek (peaking at 2,530 CFS), Vermilion River @ Vermilion (peaking at 2,940 CFS), Cuyahoga River @ Independence (peaking at 6,830 CFS), Brandy Run near Girard (peaking at 80 CFS), Elk Creek (peaking at 689 CFS), Walnut Creek (peaking at 749 CFS), Twenty Mile Creek (peaking at 1,152 CFS), Crooked Creek (peaking at 321 CFS), Cattaraugus Creek (peaking at 10,700 CFS), Chautauqua Creek (peaking at 689 CFS), Eighteen Mile Creek (peaking at 1,790 CFS), Huron River (peaking at 5,080 CFS), Black River (peaking at 3,990 CFS), Euclid Creek (peaking at 790 CFS), Canadaway Creek (peaking at 688 CFS), Silver Creek (peaking at 523 CFS), Buffalo Creek (peaking at 3,340 CFS), Cazenovia Creek (peaking at 2,790 CFS), Salmon River (peaking at 945 CFS), Oak Orchard Creek (peaking at 1,790 CFS), Genesee River (peaking at 10,600 CFS), Sandy Creek (Hamlin) (peaking at 618 CFS), Irondequoit Creek (peaking at 559 CFS), Johnson Creek (peaking at 1,480 CFS), Eighteenmile Creek (Niagara) (peaking at 395 CFS), Black River (Watertown) (peaking at 6,220 CFS), Sandy Creek (Adams) (peaking at 560 CFS). Angling conditions deteriorated quickly during the peak flow periods, leading to temporary washouts. Gaging stations monitored the recovery times as flows began returning to their baselines, mapping out the best windows for fishermen to get back on the water.
From a weather prediction standpoint, the NWS forecasts for this event received an aggregate score card grade of 'C'. Gaging observations were matched against NWS precipitation models to assess the forecasting margins, highlighting the variance in local rainfall amounts across the lake shores.
Tributary Response & Recovery
Ashtabula River
- Pre-Storm Flow
- 152 CFS
- Observed Peak
- 1,981 CFS
- Peak Time
- May 7, 12:00
- Recovers By
- May 9, 13:00
Conneaut Creek
- Pre-Storm Flow
- 189 CFS
- Observed Peak
- 2,530 CFS
- Peak Time
- May 7, 10:00
- Recovers By
- May 9, 13:00
Vermilion River @ Vermilion
- Pre-Storm Flow
- 217 CFS
- Observed Peak
- 2,940 CFS
- Peak Time
- May 6, 23:00
- Recovers By
- May 9, 12:00
Cuyahoga River @ Independence
- Pre-Storm Flow
- 910 CFS
- Observed Peak
- 6,830 CFS
- Peak Time
- May 6, 14:00
- Recovers By
- May 9, 08:00
Brandy Run near Girard
- Pre-Storm Flow
- 5 CFS
- Observed Peak
- 80 CFS
- Peak Time
- May 6, 10:00
- Recovers By
- May 9, 12:00
- Baseline Return
- May 9, 08:00
Elk Creek
- Pre-Storm Flow
- 46 CFS
- Observed Peak
- 689 CFS
- Peak Time
- May 6, 10:00
- Recovers By
- May 8, 16:00
- Baseline Return
- May 8, 12:00
Walnut Creek
- Pre-Storm Flow
- 49 CFS
- Observed Peak
- 749 CFS
- Peak Time
- May 6, 10:00
- Recovers By
- May 8, 16:00
- Baseline Return
- May 8, 12:00
Twenty Mile Creek
- Pre-Storm Flow
- 78 CFS
- Observed Peak
- 1,152 CFS
- Peak Time
- May 6, 11:00
- Recovers By
- May 8, 16:00
- Baseline Return
- May 8, 12:00
Crooked Creek
- Pre-Storm Flow
- 22 CFS
- Observed Peak
- 321 CFS
- Peak Time
- May 6, 09:00
- Recovers By
- May 8, 16:00
- Baseline Return
- May 8, 12:00
Cattaraugus Creek
- Pre-Storm Flow
- 958 CFS
- Observed Peak
- 10,700 CFS
- Peak Time
- May 6, 15:00
- Recovers By
- May 9, 09:00
- Baseline Return
- May 9, 05:00
Chautauqua Creek
- Pre-Storm Flow
- 60 CFS
- Observed Peak
- 689 CFS
- Peak Time
- May 6, 12:00
- Recovers By
- May 8, 03:00
- Baseline Return
- May 7, 23:00
Eighteen Mile Creek
- Pre-Storm Flow
- 229 CFS
- Observed Peak
- 1,790 CFS
- Peak Time
- May 6, 14:00
- Recovers By
- May 7, 10:00
- Baseline Return
- May 7, 06:00
Huron River
- Pre-Storm Flow
- 246 CFS
- Observed Peak
- 5,080 CFS
- Peak Time
- May 6, 17:00
- Recovers By
- May 9, 12:00
Black River
- Pre-Storm Flow
- 286 CFS
- Observed Peak
- 3,990 CFS
- Peak Time
- May 7, 07:00
- Recovers By
- May 9, 11:00
Euclid Creek
- Pre-Storm Flow
- N/A
- Observed Peak
- 790 CFS
- Peak Time
- May 6, 05:08
Canadaway Creek
- Pre-Storm Flow
- 78 CFS
- Observed Peak
- 688 CFS
- Peak Time
- May 6, 12:00
- Recovers By
- May 7, 20:00
- Baseline Return
- May 7, 16:00
Silver Creek
- Pre-Storm Flow
- 37 CFS
- Observed Peak
- 523 CFS
- Peak Time
- May 6, 12:00
- Recovers By
- May 8, 14:00
- Baseline Return
- May 8, 10:00
Buffalo Creek
- Pre-Storm Flow
- 158 CFS
- Observed Peak
- 3,340 CFS
- Peak Time
- May 6, 14:00
- Recovers By
- May 9, 16:00
Cazenovia Creek
- Pre-Storm Flow
- 178 CFS
- Observed Peak
- 2,790 CFS
- Peak Time
- May 6, 16:00
- Recovers By
- May 9, 16:00
Salmon River
- Pre-Storm Flow
- N/A
- Observed Peak
- 945 CFS
- Peak Time
- May 6, 16:30
Oak Orchard Creek
- Pre-Storm Flow
- 566 CFS
- Observed Peak
- 1,790 CFS
- Peak Time
- May 6, 22:00
- Recovers By
- May 8, 09:00
- Baseline Return
- May 8, 05:00
Genesee River
- Pre-Storm Flow
- 7,092 CFS
- Observed Peak
- 10,600 CFS
- Peak Time
- May 7, 12:00
- Recovers By
- May 7, 17:00
- Baseline Return
- May 7, 13:00
Sandy Creek (Hamlin)
- Pre-Storm Flow
- 127 CFS
- Observed Peak
- 618 CFS
- Peak Time
- May 7, 07:00
- Recovers By
- May 9, 18:00
Irondequoit Creek
- Pre-Storm Flow
- 174 CFS
- Observed Peak
- 559 CFS
- Peak Time
- May 6, 18:00
- Recovers By
- May 9, 01:00
- Baseline Return
- May 8, 21:00
Johnson Creek
- Pre-Storm Flow
- 1,480 CFS
- Observed Peak
- 1,480 CFS
- Peak Time
- May 6, 14:00
- Recovers By
- May 6, 19:00
- Baseline Return
- May 6, 15:00
Eighteenmile Creek (Niagara)
- Pre-Storm Flow
- 43 CFS
- Observed Peak
- 395 CFS
- Peak Time
- May 6, 22:00
- Recovers By
- May 9, 18:00
Black River (Watertown)
- Pre-Storm Flow
- 4,498 CFS
- Observed Peak
- 6,220 CFS
- Peak Time
- May 9, 09:00
- Recovers By
- May 9, 14:00
- Baseline Return
- May 9, 10:00
Sandy Creek (Adams)
- Pre-Storm Flow
- N/A
- Observed Peak
- 560 CFS
- Peak Time
- May 6, 18:00
Fishing Guide & Tactics
Looking for advice on how to target steelhead on these rivers when they are recovering from a storm? Check out our master guides:
