The Steelhead Alley Index

Saturday, May 9, 2026

Blown

Underlying score: 24/100 · Index ranks vs. May 9 ±15-day history

▼ -66 vs. yesterday

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook

Slight Risk · 18 rivers in zone

Valid May 9 4:00pm – May 10 8:00am EDT

Ashtabula River Conneaut Creek Brandy Run near Girard Elk Creek Walnut Creek Twenty Mile Creek Crooked Creek Cattaraugus Creek Chautauqua Creek Eighteen Mile Creek Canadaway Creek Silver Creek Buffalo Creek Cazenovia Creek Oak Orchard Creek Sandy Creek (Hamlin) Johnson Creek Eighteenmile Creek (Niagara)

Source: NWS Storm Prediction Center (spc.noaa.gov). Risk tier indicates severe-weather (large hail, damaging wind, tornado) probability over the next 24 hours.

Storm Watch — by region

Four state+lake buckets · auto-refreshes when conditions change

OH · Erie

Severe

4 rising · 1 alert

1 active NWS alert · 4 rivers rising 10.3×+ in 6h

▲ Vermilion River Grand River ▲ Brandy Run ▲ Black River ▲ Euclid Creek

PA · Erie

Moderate

4 rising

4 rivers rising 3.6×+ in 6h

▲ Elk Creek ▲ Walnut Creek ▲ Twenty Mile Creek ▲ Crooked Creek

NY · Erie

Moderate

3 rising

3 rivers rising 4.6×+ in 6h

▲ Chautauqua Creek ▲ Canadaway Creek ▲ Silver Creek

NY · Ontario

Quiet

All quiet — no rain, no alerts, no rapid rises.

My Alley

Your Subset Score

Personal stat — separate from the official Alley Index above. Not for citing externally.

· rivers

States

Within drive

Your Subset

Ranked vs. visible history

Last 90 days · 90 snapshots

Alley Index Your subset

Week Month Quarter Year All

of rivers blown

Today's Story

Most rivers are out — wait for the drop. Today's Steelhead Alley Index sits at 13 (Poor). That's 60 points down from yesterday — something gave way.

Leading the day: Ashtabula River, Conneaut Creek, Eighteenmile Creek (Niagara). Steer clear of Rocky River, Chagrin River, Vermilion River — flow or clarity has them out. The high-water mark for May is 87, set on May 3.

By Technique & Region

Raw composite (0–100) — not percentile-ranked

Fly

Float

Erie Tribs

Ontario Tribs

Top Today

In Trouble

All 31 Rivers — by State

River	Rating	Score
Ohio 11 rivers · avg 14
Ashtabula River	good	73
Conneaut Creek	good	64
Brandy Run	poor	18
Rocky River	poor	0
Chagrin River	poor	0
Vermilion River	poor	0
Grand River	poor	0
Cuyahoga River	poor	0
Huron River	poor	0
Black River	poor	0
Euclid Creek	poor	0
Pennsylvania 4 rivers · avg 27
Twenty Mile Creek	fair	36
Crooked Creek	fair	36
Walnut Creek	fair	27
Elk Creek	poor	9
New York — Lake Erie 7 rivers · avg 27
Buffalo Creek	fair	45
Eighteen Mile Creek	fair	36
Silver Creek	fair	36
Cazenovia Creek	fair	36
Cattaraugus Creek	poor	18
Chautauqua Creek	poor	18
Canadaway Creek	poor	0
New York — Lake Ontario 9 rivers · avg 32
Eighteenmile Creek (Niagara)	good	64
Salmon River	fair	45
Sandy Creek (Hamlin)	fair	45
Sandy Creek (Adams)	fair	45
Irondequoit Creek	fair	36
Black River (Watertown)	fair	27
Genesee River	poor	18
Oak Orchard Creek	poor	9
Johnson Creek	poor	0

Methodology. The Alley Index is a percentile rank — today's underlying conditions composite (mean of per-river fishing scores, 0–100) is compared to the historical record on this calendar window (±15 days, all years). An Index of 73 means today is better than 73% of comparable late-season days on record. Bands: Excellent 90+, Good 70–89, Average 30–69, Poor 10–29, Blown 0–9. Refreshed hourly. Steelhead-calibrated.

Index calibrating: percentile bands tighten as the historical archive grows. When fewer than 10 comparable days exist in the window, the Index falls back to the raw underlying score so the page always shows a meaningful number.

JSON API: /index/api